Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, holds a lead over her leading Republican rival, Representative Andy Biggs, in her reelection race in the critical swing state, according to a new poll.
Hobbs, first elected in 2022, is up for reelection in Arizona in November, a state that President Donald Trump won by more than 5 points in the 2024 presidential race, his strongest showing in a swing state. The new poll signals that, despite the Republican’s win two years earlier, Hobbs has a clear path to reelection.
Newsweek reached out to the Hobbs and Biggs campaigns for comment via email.
What to Know
The poll from TIPP Insights showed Hobbs leading Biggs by about 10 points among likely voters—48 percent said they would cast their ballots for the incumbent Democratic governor, while 38 percent said they would vote for Biggs.
Hobbs’ strong showing in the poll was bolstered by her support among independent voters, 51 percent of whom said they would vote for her. Meanwhile, 27 percent said they would support Biggs. Two percent would vote for someone else, while 12 percent were unsure who they would vote for.
A plurality of voters, 42 percent, said they approve of Hobbs’ job performance, while 37 percent said they disapproved. At the same time, 55 percent said they disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while just 39 percent gave the president positive marks.
Hobbs is the presumptive nominee for Democrats in the midterms, but Biggs is facing a handful of primary challengers, including Representative David Schweikert. Biggs, who has been endorsed by Trump, holds a lead in recent polling.
Schweikert was not included in the latest poll.
Both parties view Arizona’s gubernatorial race as competitive. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and Trump’s declining approval rating threatens to weaken candidates running in key races. But Hobbs’ narrow victory in 2022 and Trump’s performance in 2024 give Republicans optimism about their chances of flipping the seat.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a key forecaster, shifted the race from toss-up status to Lean Democrat in March.
“Recent electoral trends also bear watching. In the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Latino-heavy precincts voted noticeably more Democratic than they did in 2024,” analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in the update. “If similar shifts materialize in the Southwest, they could have a more pronounced impact in both Arizona and Nevada. For Hobbs, a Latino reversion could lessen the generic GOP edge in Arizona, which reasserted itself in a major way in 2024 as Trump carried the state by 5.5 points after he narrowly lost it in 2020.”
Katie Hobbs v. Andy Biggs: What Other Polls Show
Other polling has similarly given Hobbs a lead. A Noble Predictive Insights poll earlier showed her up five points over Biggs. Forty-two percent of respondents said they would vote for her, compared with 37 percent who said they intended to cast their ballots for Biggs. It surveyed 1,023 registered voters from February 23-26, 2026.
Earlier, an Emerson College poll showed a closer race. Forty-four percent of respondents said they would vote for Hobbs, while 43 percent said they would support Biggs, the poll found. It surveyed 850 registered voters from November 8-10, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Arizona Voting History
Arizona emerged as a key swing state over the past decade, with both parties scoring statewide victories. Last November, President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly six points, but Democrat Ruben Gallego eked out a win in the Senate race, a sign of how competitive the state can still be.
Former President Joe Biden narrowly carried the state by less than half a percentage point in 2020 against Trump. Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake by less than a percentage point in the 2022 gubernatorial election.
Suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson will play a key role in the election. They shifted leftward for much of the 2010s as the state became more purple, but Trump did perform well in those areas in 2024. If they shift leftward again this November, that would be a boost to Hobbs’ chances.
Margins among Hispanic and Latino voters will also be closely watched in November. Trump made inroads with these voter groups in 2024—one reason he managed to achieve such a relatively strong margin in Arizona. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won Latino voters in Arizona by 10 points (54 percent to 44 percent) in 2024, compared to Biden’s 24-point victory in 2020 (61 percent to 37 percent), according to CNN’s exit polls.
But polls suggest the president’s approval has slipped among these groups. If his approval remains low, it could benefit Hobbs and other Democrats in Arizona.
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