A new statewide poll for Florida‘s gubernatorial race shows GOP Representative Byron Donalds and Democrat candidate David Jolly are tied, underscoring a seemingly competitive race to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis.
The findings come in a state that President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris and where no Democrat has won the governorship in over 20 years.
Newsweek reached out to Jolly’s and Donalds’ campaigns on Monday for comment.
Why It Matters
Florida, once a battleground evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, zoomed rightward over the past decade and is now seen as a reliably Republican state. An influx of conservative retirees into the state, as well as Trump’s inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters, helped turn the state into a conservative stronghold.
However, Democrats are hoping to make the state, home to more than 23 million residents, competitive once again in the November’s midterms. They believe Trump’s declining approval rating may bolster their chances in more conservative states. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterms.
What To Know
Trump, who now lives in the Sunshine State, endorsed Donalds last February, which then prompted the congressman to officially throw his name into the race. In a recent speech in Florida, the president praised Donalds as a “fighter” and said in part that “he’s so far ahead in the polls.”
Jolly, a frequent Trump critic, previously represented Florida’s 13th congressional district in the House of Representatives from 2014-2017 as a Republican. In 2018, Jolly announced he was leaving the GOP and in April 2025, he registered as a Democrat to launch his bid for Florida’s governor.
According to the poll by The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI), Donalds and Jolly landed 40 percent of the perspective vote, while 16 percent are unsure. Jolly landed his biggest support among 18 to 29-year-olds, while Donalds landed his biggest support with those age 65-years-old and up and men, according to the poll.
By race and ethnicity, Donalds’ biggest supporters are white with no college education with 47 percent, and Jolly gained the most among Asian voters with 70 percent of the vote.
The poll surveyed 687 likely statewide voters on April 27 and has a margin of error of 3.7 percent.
TPSI’s poll also showed Republican candidate James Fishback’s chances against Jolly, showing Fishback with 43 percent versus Jolly’s 38 percent. The survey notes that 17 percent were undecided.
In a previous survey taken at the end of March by Emerson College Polling, Donalds landed 44 percent of the vote compared to Jolly’s 39 percent. The poll shows that 15 percent are undecided. The poll was taken from March 29-31, among 1,125 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
What Are Donalds and Jolly Saying
In an X post last month, Jolly wrote: “Floridians are ready to move past the division and the daily political games. They want leadership focused on real results, real solutions, and a future that works for everyone.”
Meanwhile, Donalds wrote on X last month: “My commitment to Floridians: the state will be efficient with the resources you have given us. The people of Florida demand no less. Your government is going to be responsible and ruthlessly efficient with the dollars you trust us with.”
What Happens Next
Both forecasters, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, classify the race as being safe or solid for Republicans.
Florida’s primary is set for August 18.
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