Amid the confusion surrounding negotiations to end the Iran conflict, one unexpected cause for optimism is the beneficial impact the war has had on Ukraine. While the world’s attention has been preoccupied with the economic implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Kyiv has skilfully exploited the conflict to its advantage.
One of the more tangible indications of this has been seen on the battlefield where, for the first time in many months, Ukraine has succeeded in establishing a significant advantage in its long-running war with Russia.
The latest study conducted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) found that Russia’s army not only recorded almost no territorial gains on the frontline in Ukraine in March for the first time in two-and-a-half years. Its findings confirmed that the Ukrainians had managed to achieve a number of localised breakthroughs in the south-east of the country. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has estimated that the total gains amount to 117.6 sq miles, or about 10 per cent of the territory Kyiv lost to Moscow in 2025.
While this is admittedly modest, the Ukrainians’ success means that, despite Moscow’s highly anticipated spring-summer military offensive, there is now little prospect of the Russians achieving their goal of seizing Ukraine’s “fortress belt”, the heavily fortified Ukrainian territory in the Donbas that is deemed vital to establishing control over the east of the country. At the same time the Russians are continuing to suffer catastrophic casualties – the ISW estimates their losses are currently averaging around 35,000 a month.
Much of this is down to the growing sophistication of Ukraine’s home-grown drone and missile capability which, together with Russia’s inability to access Elon Musk’s Starlink communications network, has placed Russian forces at a distinct disadvantage.
Ukraine, moreover, has managed to intensify its strikes deep inside Russian territory, primarily targeting key Russian oil infrastructure to ensure the Kremlin cannot take advantage of the spiralling prices caused by the Iran conflict. Recent estimates suggest that 40 per cent of Russian oil exports have been affected by Ukrainian strikes on pipelines, ports and refineries in recent weeks.
Ukraine’s air defences have also improved dramatically in recent months as Russia has continued its combined drone and missile attacks against key Ukrainian infrastructure in an attempt to break the resolve of Ukraine’s civilian population. The Ukrainians are credited with shooting down a record 33,000 Russian drones in March, many of them manufactured in Iran.
This follows Kyiv’s success in developing cheap and highly effective ways of countering drone attacks instead of relying on state-of-the-art defensive missiles such as the US Patriot air-defence system.
Ukraine’s increasingly effective battlefield performance is attracting a great deal of interest from a range of suitors in Europe and the Middle East, especially Gulf states that are desperate to upgrade their defences against the threat posed by Iranian drones and missiles.
The upsurge in interest from Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirates has resulted in Kyiv agreeing to a number of lucrative defence deals with Arab countries that are keen to take advantage of Kyiv’s technological prowess. Similar agreements have been reached with Germany, Norway, the Netherlands and Turkey.
This has the potential to affect profound change in the geopolitical landscape. Prior to the Iran conflict, many Gulf states were seeking to strengthen ties with Beijing and Moscow because of their concerns about the reliability of the US and its Western allies to defend their interests in a crisis.
The Iran war, which has seen Tehran regularly launch unprovoked attacks against its Gulf neighbours, has confirmed their worst fears. But the fact that both China and Russia have lent Iran their backing has prompted many Gulf leaders to review their alliances, with the result that Ukraine has suddenly emerged as an alternative.
If anything, the Iran war has exposed the inadequacies of relying on China or Russia. Even though Beijing and Moscow have signed comprehensive agreements with Tehran, neither was able to offer the ayatollahs any meaningful protection against the superior American and Israeli firepower.
Russia’s appeal as a reliable ally is even less convincing given its underwhelming performance in Ukraine, which has resulted in Vladimir Putin being forced to scale back Moscow’s traditional May 9 Victory Day military parade for fear of the event being targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes.
More from Con Coughlin
With Starmer in No 10, the special relationship is beyond rescue
Rather than indulging in the Kremlin’s annual display of military power, Putin is said to be so paranoid about his own security that he has banned his staff from using mobile phones in case they are used to identify his whereabouts. This follows the success the Americans and Israelis enjoyed in targeting and eliminating key figures in the Iranian regime during the recent conflict.
With neither Russia nor China covering themselves in glory, countries like Ukraine, with their cutting-edge military technology, suddenly seem like a better bet for Middle Eastern leaders on the lookout for new allies.
