Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa trails Republican Governor Greg Abbott in a new Texas gubernatorial poll.
The poll comes a little more than six months before Texas voters will decide whether to elect a Democrat as governor for the first time in more than three decades or give Abbott a fourth term that would put him on track to become the longest-serving governor in state history. Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990 and has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980.
Newsweek has reached out to the Hinojosa and Abbott campaigns for comment via email on Tuesday.
What To Know
Hinojosa received 43 percent support to 48 percent for Abbott in a recent Texas Public Opinion Research poll. About 7 percent of participants were undecided and 2 percent said they would not vote. The poll of 1,018 likely general election voters was conducted April 17-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
However, the poll found that Hinojosa led by 13 points among independents and 32 points among moderates and pulls a significant share of support from Black and Latino voters.
Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch ally of President Donald Trump who was first elected to the state’s top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022.
Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.
Recent polling has shown Abbott leading Hinojosa, with a University of Houston poll showing Abbott ahead by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. In the survey among 1,502 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points, 49 percent of respondents said they supported Abbott’s reelection, while 42 percent backed Hinojosa, 3 percent supported Dixon and 6 percent were undecided.
Hinojosa led among women, Black voters, college-educated voters and Gen Z. Abbott held stronger support among men, white and Latino voters, older voters and those with a high school education.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted January 10-12 found Abbott leading. Among 1,165 registered voters, Abbott held an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. About 8 percent of voters were undecided.
An internal poll commissioned by Hinojosa’s campaign and conducted by Democratic firm GBAO Strategies from January 26-February 3 among 1,000 likely voters showed Abbott with 46 percent and Hinojosa with 43 percent, followed by Libertarian Pat Dixon at 6 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll also offered insights into the high-profile U.S. Senate race, with Democratic state Representative James Talarico leading Republican Senator John Cornyn and GOP state Attorney General Ken Paxton in head-to-head matchups.
Some Republicans have expressed concern over Democrats’ hopes for a blue wave in the state, including Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, who this month said the GOP will struggle to hold their majority in the Texas House, which the party has controlled for more than two decades.
Patrick made the remarks at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s annual conference in early April. He said: “We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House.”
Patrick argued that if the loser of the GOP Senate runoff on May 26 does not endorse the other candidate, it could impact down-ballot candidates.
“Get over it and come together as one,” he said.
As the presiding officer of the Texas Senate, Patrick noted that the chamber “is in good shape” but said Paxton and Cornyn are “going to have to help House members.”
What Happens Next
Nationally, 36 states will elect governors this year in a cycle that could reshape partisan control of statehouses.
The general election will take place on November 3.
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