President Donald Trump on Thursday described the modern world as “somewhat of a casino” when asked about online prediction markets such as Polymarket, responding to questions about allegations that a U.S. soldier used classified information to place lucrative bets tied to a covert operation in Venezuela.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said he was unaware of the case but pledged to “look into it,” adding that he is “not happy with any of that stuff” when pressed on whether federal employees should be betting on prediction markets. His remarks came after prosecutors disclosed charges against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an American soldier accused of placing wagers on Polymarket about the fate of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro using nonpublic information—renewing scrutiny of prediction markets that allow users to bet on geopolitical and national security outcomes.
Trump compared the charges against Van Dyke to the baseball player Pete Rose “betting on his own team,” and added that he was “never much in favor” of “betting things” now going on worldwide.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has, under Trump, taken a favorable stance toward prediction markets. In July, the agency dropped a Biden-era probe into whether Polymarket was functioning as an unregistered derivatives exchange. The CFTC’s Trump-appointed chair, Michael Selig, has also argued publicly that these platforms are financial markets, rather than gambling, and therefore remain subject to federal oversight rather than the less forgiving authority of states themselves.
Trump’s family is also tied to two of the most prominent prediction markets. In January of last year, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as strategic advisor. In August, he joined the advisory board of Polymarket, in which his venture capital firm 1789 Capital made an undisclosed “strategic investment.”
Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, which is majority-owned by the president through a revocable trust, announced in October that it would be entering the space and launching a crypto-based prediction market on the social media platform.
The charges against Van Dyke, which the Department of Justice said would constitute “clear insider trading,” mark the first major legal action taken against an American suspected of such activity on prediction markets. It follows months of mounting suspicions about traders profiting from non-public information on political events like Maduro’s capture and the Iran war.
With several reports of largely inactive accounts earning massive profits from suspiciously well-timed bets, insider trading fears have fueled further scrutiny of prediction markets themselves and prompted bipartisan calls for further regulation.
Certain Republican lawmakers have said Van Dyke should receive a pardon, accusing fellow lawmakers of routinely committing the same alleged crimes with no consequences.
Polymarket, meanwhile, has said the case underscores the efficacy of its newly introduced system for clamping down on “insider trading and market manipulation.”
“Last month, we published our enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading,” the company posted to X on Thursday. “When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket.”
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