Democrat Tom Begich held a lead in a new poll of the Alaska gubernatorial primary race as Democrats hope to make The Last Frontier competitive in the 2026 midterm elections—but he still lacks the majority required to win the election in November.
The Dittman Research poll, commissioned by Republican former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson’s campaign, provides an early look into where voters stand ahead of the primary elections. The poll finds that Begich has support among a plurality of voters, but still must work to consolidate support to break 50 percent.
Newsweek reached out to each candidate included in the poll.
How Alaska’s Voting System Works
Alaska uses a unique electoral system that combines ranked-choice voting and a jungle primary. All candidates, regardless of their political party, will appear on a single ballot during the primary in August. The four candidates who receive the most support will advance to the November general election.
Ranked-choice voting is used in the general election. Voters will rank the four candidates according to their preferences. If no candidate receives a majority of support, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated, and their votes will be redistributed according to their second choice. If, after the second round, no candidate receives a majority, that process is repeated to declare the winner.
What to Know About the New Alaska Governor’s Race Poll
Incumbent GOP Governor Mike Dunleavy is not running for reelection due to term limits.
There are 18 candidates for Alaska’s governor. Eleven of those were included in the Dittman Research poll, conducted from April 27-30, 2026, among 451 likely voters in Alaska, and revealed early voter sentiments about the race. Here is a look at where voters stand in this poll.
- Democrat Tom Begich, former state senator: 21 percent
- Republican Dave Bronson, former mayor of Anchorage: 7 percent
- Bernadette Wilson, a Republican small business owner: 6 percent
- Click Bishop, a Republican former state senator: 6 percent
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a Democratic former state representative: 5 percent
- Matt Claman, a Democratic state senator: 5 percent
- Treg Taylor, a Republican former attorney general: 5 percent
- Adam Crum, a Republican former Department of Revenue commissioner: 4 percent
- Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom, a Republican: 2 percent
- Matt Heilala, a Republican member of the state medical board: 2 percent
- Shelley Hughes, a Republican former Senate majority leader: 2 percent
Not included in the poll, but still gubernatorial candidates include:
- Edna DeVries, Republican, mayor of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough
- Meda DeWitt, independent,
- Jessica Faircloth, nonpartisan/independent
- Henry F. “Hank” Kroll, Republican
- James Parkin, Republican
- Bruce Walden, Republican
- Gregg Brelsford, independent
An additional 2 percent said they would vote for someone else, while 2 percent said they would not vote. Thirty-one percent said they were still unsure. Those undecided voters could be crucial to the eventual outcome of the race, especially considering the tight margins in this poll.
Claman told Newsweek he is “pleased to be in the top third of 18 candidates” after “almost 4 months working in the legislature and not raising campaign funds due to legal restrictions.”
In total, 34 percent said they would vote for a Republican in the primary, while 31 percent said they would vote for a Democrat.
This poll points to Begich, Bronson, Wilson and Bishop advancing to the general election. Begich’s chances of victory would hinge on his ability to consolidate support from Democrats, win over undecided voters and convince some Republicans who backed other candidates in the primary to vote for him.
Prediction markets favor Republicans. Kalshi gives Republicans a 60 percent chance of winning. Polymarket gives Begich a 34 percent chance, compared to Wilson’s 24 percent and Bronson’s 21 percent. No other candidate had above a 10 percent chance of winning.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Republican, describing it as “on the outer reaches of the gubernatorial map.”
Alaska Senate Race: GOP Chances of Losing
Democrats are hoping to make several races in Alaska competitive in November, hoping it will defy its status as a reliably Republican state in a more favorable national environment for Democrats fueled by President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating.
The Senate race this year is viewed as particularly competitive.
Democrat Mary Peltola, who represented the state’s at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025, is challenging Republican Dan Sullivan, and polls point to a close race.
The latest Alaska Survey Research poll, conducted among 1,946 likely voters from April 16-19, showed Peltola winning on the second round with just over 50 percent compared to Sullivan’s 44 percent.
The race is viewed as Leans Republican by both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Alaska has only gone Democratic in a presidential race once, in 1964. Recent margins have been solid for Republicans, but it has trended toward a more competitive direction compared to the early 2000s.
In 2024, it backed Trump by about 13 points, an improvement for the president compared to his 10-point victory in 2020. In 2016, however, he carried Alaska by nearly 15 points. It backed Republican Mitt Romney by about 14 points in 2012 and Republican John McCain by more than 21 points in 2008. It also backed former President George W. Bush in both of his runs—by 26 points in 2004 and 31 points in 2000.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote in January that Peltola’s entrance into the race gave Democrats a “credible target.”
“There is an old cliché that we hear in various forms when talking to people involved in campaigns, particularly when there is the possibility of a wave (as is the case for Democrats in 2026)—in the event the wave comes, a party wants as many surfers in the water as possible in order to ride the wave,” he wrote. “Surfers, in this case, are credible candidates running credible races in states or districts that typically aren’t gettable absent the wave—Peltola running in Alaska fits this definition well. She can probably get reasonably close to winning on her own merits, but it’ll take a wave to push her to shore.”
Prediction markets favor Peltola; Kalshi gave Democrats a 59 percent chance of victory, while Polymarket gave her a 67 percent chance of unseating Sullivan on Thursday morning.
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