Good morning. Democrats’ eyes are watering at the prospect of seizing control of Congress after the midterm elections.
Both the House and Senate appear to be in play, and Republicans are hitting the panic button all over the country.
But there are a number of warning signs for Democrats, both with respect to the midterms but also related to broader party dysfunction they still haven’t sorted out following their 2024 drubbing.
Here are a few:
Schumer: His command of the Senate Democrats is in question, and his selection of Janet Mills to be the Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race was a total flop. With Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania growing into a maverick role, what is New York Democrat Chuck Schumer to do?Scandals: Both parties have appeared to try to one-up each other with scandals in recent months (someone should tell them there are no winners in such contests, only losers). Two Democratic lawmakers have recently resigned under ethical clouds, and Democratic fundraiser ActBlue has all sorts of drama.Supreme Court: The Supreme Court last week gutted part of the Voting Rights Act in a way that sharply curbs states from using race to draw voting districts that help minority communities. Former President Barack Obama and other Democratic leaders immediately started ringing alarm bells, signaling they think this could be quite bad for the party. Whether districts will be redrawn before the midterm elections is unclear, but some states are certainly trying.
Republicans will have their hands full defending their slim majorities in Congress, and President Trump’s poor approval rating, and high gas prices likely won’t help. Democrats might try to coast into November simply as the anti-GOP. That might work. But then again, it might not.
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People and Policies I’m Watching
Iran war: Monday marks the beginning of “Project Freedom,” Trump’s arm’s-length plan to guide stranded commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s Monday: The president to take part in a policy meeting at 1 p.m. ET and attend a small-business summit at the White House at 3 p.m.
What I’m Following
The Secret Service director has questions to answer. Sean Curran cut the storybook image of a Secret Service agent when, in dark suit and sunglasses, he whisked Trump away from an attempt on his life in Butler, Pa., in July 2024. Nearly two years later another would-be assassin targeted Trump—this time at a Washington press dinner—and Curran is the one answering for the agency as questions about its preparedness mount.
Here’s what’s shoring up the global economy during the energy shock. Full oil inventories, leaps in energy efficiency and the AI boom have helped stave off a global slump for now. The resilience also reflects an underappreciated shift in the workings of the global economy as countries have become steadily more energy efficient, squeezing more economic activity out of each drop of oil or cubic meter of natural gas burned.
The antiabortion movement is turning on Trump. Abortions are up in the years after the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the antiabortion lobby is now frustrated with the man who billed himself as the “most pro-life president in history.” In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Marjorie Dannenfelser, the influential president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said, “Trump is the problem. The president is the problem.”
What Else Is Happening
Taxes on second homes are springing up across America, with supporters saying that they generate revenue and ease housing shortages, but opponents that they drive away wealthy people whose spending boosts local economies, and discourage new construction.Foreclosures have jumped after a Biden-era subsidy that helped people falling behind on their mortgage to stay in their homes was recently scaled back.Babak Zanjani has emerged at the forefront of Iranian efforts to skirt sanctions, coming a long way from death row to crypto to boost Revolutionary Guard coffers.Iowa has trended red for a decade, but Democrats are showing signs of life, and that could help their party reclaim Congress and maybe even a governorship.
What I’m Reading
FBI, Secret Service Interview Brewery Owner Over Social Media Post (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel)A New Haley for a New Right (The Free Press)Elizabeth Warren to Join Senate Candidate for Iowa Rally (Des Moines Register)
About Me
I’m Damian Paletta, The Wall Street Journal’s Washington coverage chief. I’ve covered Washington for 22 years as a reporter and editor. I’ve covered the White House, Congress, national security, the federal budget, economics and multiple market meltdowns.WSJ Politics brings you an expert guide to what’s driving D.C., every weekday morning. Send your feedback to politics@wsj.com (if you’re reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply). This edition was curated and edited in collaboration with Joe Erwin and Michael Connolly. Got a tip for us? Here’s how to submit.
