President Donald Trump may have stronger odds of winning the upcoming Nobel Peace Prize, according to British betting company William Hill, which has declared Trump the favorite for the prize following his snub in 2025.
“Although the Norwegian Nobel Committee have not confirmed that Donald Trump is among the 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, we make Trump the leading contender to take this year’s award,” the company said.
“Trump was overlooked by the committee last year in favor of Venezuelan politician Maria Corina Machado, but we now price the US President at 3/1 to claim the 2026 prize – a 25 percent chance,” the company added. “That is a longer price than we quoted late last year, when we rated Trump’s chances at 55 percent (4/5).”
“Although this year’s Nobel Peace Prize is not announced until October, we would expect Trump’s name to remain in the frame all the way up to the Committee’s announcement,” the company said.
Why it Matters
The Nobel Peace Prize remains one of the world’s most prestigious accolades, with the power to confer global credibility on recipients.
Trump made a renewed push for the prize during his second term with an emphasis on ending international conflicts. By the end of the first year of his second term, he claimed to have enacted eight peace deals to end conflicts in various regions, including conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, India and Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, and Israel and Hamas.
Ultimately, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize went to Machado for her role in seeking to advance democracy in Venezuela .During her visit to the White House earlier this year, Machado offered Trump her Nobel prize, which he accepted. Some analysts believed she made the offer in an attempt to bring the president around to supporting her bid to lead Venezuela.
Trump’s Odds of Winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
William Hill only three months ago had noted that Trump’s odds were “drifting” as he moved from 7/4 odds to 7/2 – both far worse odds than the initial 4/5 predicted around Christmas. At the time, the company argued that “recent events suggest his chances of claiming this year’s award are quickly decreasing.”
William Hill has given Trump stronger odds than other agencies, such as prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket: On Kalshi, the odds-on favorite is Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) for their handling of what the United Nations has described as the greatest humanitarian crisis on the planet with 29 percent, followed by Doctors Without Borders at 20 percent. Trump sits at sixth with around six percent chance.
And Polymarket has Trump third-most likely at seven percent, but Polymarket shows an unbelievably tight race, with first and second place – Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – each at only eight percent.
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