Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra, who served as U.S. secretary of health and human services in the Joe Biden administration, is the most likely candidate to win California‘s gubernatorial race, according to betting odds, amid a campaign to change the rules for future elections.
For months, California’s use of a top‑two “jungle” primary—meaning the two candidates who receive the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the November midterms—had fueled anxiety among Democrats that the party’s large field risked splitting the vote in the primary in June and causing the possibility of an all‑GOP general election in an often reliably blue state.
While that scenario now appears less likely now that Democratic voters have begun pushing for Becerra, following the exit of former Representative Eric Swalwell, a Democratic strategist is trying to change the primary rules—though that would reportedly only come into effect by 2030, at the earliest.
The initiative has gained bipartisan support, including from former California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring, who wrote on X: “I’m honored to join this campaign so voters have a choice of nominees from every party in November.”
Proposed Rule Change
On Friday, Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio filed a new proposal—dubbed “Undo the Top-Two”—with state elections officials that would cause California to revert to a traditional partisan primary in which one candidate from each party heads to the general election, per The New York Times.
As mentioned above, California uses a jungle primary system—which voters approved in 2010—in which all candidates, regardless of party, run on a single ballot. The two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election.
California, the nation’s most populous state, is reliably Democratic. It backed then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 points in the 2024 presidential election and has not supported a Republican governor since reelecting Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served from 2003 to 2011, in 2006.
Maviglio, who has drawn support for the initiative from across the political spectrum, according to The New York Times, saw an opportunity to change a system as fear grew this year among Democrats that the high number of candidates would scatter votes and result in two Republican candidates advancing to the general election.
But the race was upended when U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell, a front-runner in the open primary to replace term-limited Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, left the race in April after sexual assault allegations surfaced. Swalwell, who later resigned from Congress, has denied the allegations.
Becerra appears to have since surged in the polls, making the possibility of an all-GOP general election, while still possible, less likely.
Maviglio said in the proposal that the jungle primary had “failed.”
“Political partisanship is worse than ever in both Washington D.C. and Sacramento,” he wrote. “Special interests have more control over our politics than ever. Voters are too frequently forced to choose from just two candidates from the same political party in the general election. When that occurs, entire segments of voters are left without any candidate who reflects their views.”
He continued: “It is time to end the experiment and return to a system that will expand voter choice and encourage broader participation.”
To be approved, it would have to be backed by voters and would not be ready until the 2030 elections, at the earliest, according to The New York Times.
Polling and Betting Odds
Betting odds as of Monday morning show Becerra is in the lead to become governor. According to predictions market Polymarket, he has a 49 percent chance of electoral success while Democratic billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer is in second place, carrying odds of 33 percent.
Another betting platform Kalshi, similarly puts Becerra in the lead with odds of 49 percent to Steyer’s 32 percent.
A California Democratic Party-sponsored survey conducted by Evitarus, conducted before a televised debate on May 5, found Republican candidate Hilton, whom President Donald Trump has endorsed, and Becerra tied at 18 percent, marking the first time a Democrat has shared the lead in the party’s tracking polls. The same survey showed undecided voters dropping sharply, from 24 percent to 14 percent, as ballots begin arriving in mailboxes.
A separate SurveyUSA poll conducted in late April and early May painted a slightly different picture of the primary, putting Hilton first at 20 percent, followed by Democrat Tom Steyer at 18 percent, Chad Bianco, at 12 percent and Becerra at 10 percent, with 17 percent undecided.
“…[I]t looks like Becerra, seemingly the leading Democrat at the moment, has a good chance of leading the pack along with the Republican Steve Hilton,” Robert Shapiro, political science professor at Columbia University, told Newsweek last week. “If that is the way the primary plays out, then Becerra will be the favorite in the general election.”
A CBS News/YouGov survey conducted April 23 to 27 among 1,479 registered California voters had found a narrow race, with Hilton at 16 percent, Steyer at 15 percent and Becerra at 13 percent. The poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
After the primary on June 2, the California gubernatorial election takes place on November 3, 2026.
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