CNN’s data guru Harry Enten is warning of a potential gerrymandering “nightmare” for Democrats at November’s midterm elections.
Enten appeared on CNN on Sunday to discuss the impact a redistricting battle playing out across the country could have on national election results.
Last week, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a voter-approved Democratic congressional redistricting plan. The court ruled 4-3 that the state’s Democratic-led legislature violated procedural requirements by placing the amendment on the ballot to authorize mid-decade redistricting.
Democrats had counted on Virginia adding four seats to the state’s congressional delegation, moving from a 6-5 advantage to 10-1. The blocking of the redistricting plan, which had been approved by voters, is seen as a blow to the Democrats in their fight back against Donald Trump’s redistricting campaign.
Enten said the redistricting wars have taken a “drastic turn” over the last few weeks, and he predicted that Republicans would “win them” when it comes to this cycle.
“Does that mean it’s a nightmare for the Democrats?” Enten asked, before answering his own question: “Well, sort of, but not really.”
The data analyst ran the numbers and said that the Democrats would need to win the popular vote by less than a point, under the current lines, to capture the House.
But those numbers change under the new redistricting lines in states including Virginia, Florida, and Tennessee, meaning Democrats would need significantly more votes for victory.
“Democrats would have to win the national House vote by between 3 and 4 points in order to win House control come November,” Enten said.
“Now, that’s a significantly wider margin than what we’d expect under the current lines... but it’s 3 to 4 points. It is not anything like 10 points or anything like that. It just makes the road significantly harder for Democrats.”
Enten flagged good news for Democrats with their current lead of around 6 points in the national House vote polls, but said the redistricting battle leaves them with a “much smaller margin for error.”
Historically speaking, Enten said, the real margin of error is closer to plus or minus 7 points.
“So what that essentially means is, yes, Democrats would be favored going into the elections today,” he said, referring to their current 6-point lead.
“But... they would not be anywhere near as big of a favorite as they were, let’s say, a few weeks ago.”
Enten’s shared prediction market data showing that in April Democrats had an 86-percent chance of winning the House; that figure is now down to 74 percent.
“That, of course, makes a whole heck of a lot of sense, given that the lines have, are going to be redrawn, heading into the 2026 election, in a much less favorable way for Democrats than we thought that they were going to be,” Enten said.
The ruling in Virginia follows House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries previously claiming that voters passing the referendum was a sign Democrats were successfully neutering GOP gerrymandering in red states.
“The decision to overturn an entire election is unprecedented and an undemocratic action that cannot stand,” Jeffries said last Friday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson praised the court’s decision, stating, “This ruling is a victory for democracy and ensures Virginians have fair representation in Congress.”
