CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten said Republicans who defy President Donald Trump risk being “voted off the island,” following a series of victories by Trump-endorsed candidates in Indiana’s GOP primaries this week.
The data Enten shared in a post to X on Thursday is somewhat of a sharp contrast with separate data he previously presented showing erosion in Trump’s support among Republican-leaning independents ahead of the 2026 midterms.
As midterms approach, Democrats and Republicans are vying for control of governor’s mansions, the Senate and the House. The GOP holds a narrow lead in the House, 217-212, and a 53-47 edge in the Senate.
Why It Matters
Enten’s remarks highlight a split political picture: strong enthusiasm among core MAGA voters that buoyed Trump-backed contenders in Indiana, alongside what the analyst called an apparent absolute collapse in support from GOP-leaning independents, a bloc that typically proves critical in elections.
The results in Indiana offer early insight into Trump’s ability to shape down-ballot Republican primaries after Indiana senators helped sink the mid-decade redistricting plan favored by the White House.
What To Know
In a video posted to X by Enten on Thursday, he says, “As Indiana goes, so goes the nation: Trump still has the juice with the GOP. His approval with them is the same or higher than in past midterm cycles. Most of the GOP say party leaders should follow Trump’s lead. GOP lawmakers who mess with Trump get voted off the island.”
Enten noted that among Republicans, Trump is just as popular as ever during midterm cycles. He pointed to a national approval average for the president of 84 percent right now compared to 76 percent in 2022 and 85 percent in 2018 among Republicans.
“The bottom line is this, Donald Trump still absolutely has juice with Republican voters, you saw it in Indiana, and I think that you’ll see it down the line as well if any Republicans try and go against the president of the United States, who is still very much beloved by Republican voters nationwide,” Enten said.
Enten also said that 60 percent of MAGA Republicans say it is more important to vote in the 2026 election cycle versus other midterms. The poll Enten referenced notes that 36 percent of non-MAGA Republicans say the same.
“So, what’s going on in these primaries, right, it’s not just that you have this core Republican base that really loves Donald Trump, the people who really love him, they’re the ones who are absolutely juiced up to go out and vote. They would go over hot coals to vote in those primaries, and you saw that in Indiana,” Enten said in part.
In an email to Newsweek on Thursday, Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro said, “This shows that Trump’s strength among his MAGA primary election voting base is still very strong. The threat that Republican candidates at odds with Trump face of being ‘primaried’ by candidates loyal to and supported by Trump, remains very serious. Candidates like Thomas Massie could be in trouble, though perhaps not as much as candidates in bright red states like Indiana.”
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, also told Newsweek on Thursday: “President Trump’s power in Republican primaries depends on the electorate. Some areas of the country only turned red under Trump’s influence, and he holds significant sway in those communities. Other historically Republican areas have been less enthusiastic about Trump’s influence on the GOP, and are more tolerant of maverick Republicans. Utah offers the most-obvious example, but suburbs in the Midwest and Atlantic states also tend to fit that pattern.”
Indiana Election Results Show Trump’s Grip on Party
Five incumbents lost their races versus one who secured victory on Tuesday night, as Trump backed their opponents. As of 4:45 p.m. ET Thursday, one race was still too close to call.
The incumbents who lost their races following Trump’s endorsement of their opponents include Linda Rogers, Travis Holdman, James Buck and Greg Walker. Incumbent Greg Goode survived Trump’s support of his foe.
Incumbent Daniel Dernulc also lost his race on Tuesday night, as Trump-backed opponent Trevor De Vries secured victory.
In the race that remains too close to call, incumbent Spencer Deery holds an extremely narrow lead over Trump-backed candidate Paula Copenhaver. According to CNN, they each have 50 percent of the vote, with 99 percent of the ballots in. Deery leads by just three votes, 6,334 to 6,331.
What Has Trump Said?
The election results follow Trump’s displeasure with a redistricting bill in the Hoosier State being shot down last year. The president announced support for the bill and took numerous swipes at Republican State Senate Pro Tempore Rodric Bray for backing it.
In a post to Truth Social before polls closed on Tuesday, Trump said, “Good luck to those Great Indiana Senate Candidates who are running against people who couldn’t care less about our Country, or about keeping the Majority in Congress. There are eight Great Patriots running against long seated RINOS — Let’s see how those RINOS do tonight! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
The president has also previously ripped into the incumbents by calling them a “RINO” and a “LOSER,” or accusing them of failing the people of Indiana.
Trump has also assailed Bray as “WEAK and PATHETIC” regarding the blocked redistricting effort in the Hoosier State.
Related Articles
