Democrats’ longtime ambition of flipping a statewide race in Texas got a positive sign on Tuesday.
New polling data shows the party’s Senate nominee, state Representative James Talarico, leading both incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn and GOP state Attorney General Ken Paxton in head-to-head matchups.
Talarico won his Democratic primary in early March, but Cornyn and Paxton are headed to a runoff in the Republican primary on May 26.
Although Democrats consistently fall short of flipping statewide races for Senate and governor in the GOP stronghold, some liberal and conservative analysts believe this year could be different—with Talarico’s crossover appeal, President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and Democrats’ consistent success in special elections over the past year.
The new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research signals a close race in a state that backed President Donald Trump by a double-digit margin in the 2024 presidential election.
A Cornyn spokesperson declined comment when reached by Newsweek Tuesday morning.
Newsweek also reached out to the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.
What Poll Shows About James Talarico’s Chances of Flipping Texas
The new poll, which was conducted from April 17 to 20, signals Talarico has a shot at fulfilling what his party hopes will no longer be pipe dream.
Cornyn trails his Democratic rival by 3 percentage points in the survey, with Talarico at 44 percent and the incumbent Republican at 41 percent. When pitted against Paxton, Talarico performs even better with 46 percent support to the GOP candidate’s 41 percent—a lead of 5 points.
Talarico’s advantage among moderate and independent voters powered his lead in this poll.
He led moderates by 43 points against Cornyn (62 percent to 19 percent) and 49 points against Paxton (65 percent to 16 percent).
Among independent voters, he led Cornyn by 22 points (51 percent to 29 percent) and Paxton by 25 points (53 percent to 28 percent).
The poll included 1,018 likely general election voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Other Texas Senate Polls Show Tight Race
The poll is in line with others showing a competitive race in Texas.
A University of Houston and YouGov poll showed Cornyn up one point over Talarico (44 percent to 43 percent), and Paxton up 2 points (46 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 1,502 likely voters from January 20-31, 2026.
An Emerson College poll showed Cornyn up 3 points over Talarico (47 percent to 44 percent), while Paxton and Talarico were tied at 46 percent. It surveyed 1,165 voters from January 10-12, 2026.
Forecasters still give Republicans an advantage.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report classify the race as Likely Republican. Cook defines Likely Republican as being “not considered competitive at this point” but having “the potential to become engaged.”
“Looking ahead, we would very likely move Texas Senate from Likely Republican to Leans Republican if Paxton ended up winning the runoff,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in a March 4 update.
“We may end up making the move later this cycle even if Cornyn is the nominee, depending on the broader environment and other factors.
“After all, while Cornyn exceeded expectations, it isn’t a sign of strength that a four-term senator (and state attorney general before that) received just a little more than 40% of the vote in his own party primary.”
Texas last voted for a Democratic senator in 1992, so a Talarico victory would be ending a decades-long Republican winning streak.
Paxton Challenges Cornyn: What to Know About GOP Runoff
Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002, but he has drawn criticism from parts of the Republican base over his support for a 2022 bipartisan gun‑safety bill and past comments about Trump.
He is viewed as a more traditional Republican. In 2023, he said he did not believe Trump would be able to win the 2024 presidential election.
“I think President Trump’s time has passed him by,” he said in remarks reported by The Houston Chronicle.
Paxton heads into the runoff with strong backing from the party’s more conservative supporters and Trump-aligned voters.
But many in the Republican Party do not believe he would be as strong of a candidate against Talarico as some view Cornyn as a candidate more capable of holding up a coalition between Hispanic voters and suburban voters.
Paxton also has some legal baggage.
In 2023, the GOP-controlled Texas House voted to impeach Paxton on articles that included bribery and the abuse of public trust.
The impeachment investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton’s former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct. The attorney general has denied any wrongdoing and urged his supporters to protest outside the statehouse.
He was acquitted in the Texas Senate. The attorney general has described the impeachment as a “weaponization of our political system was designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment.”
“Lobbyists and donors in Texas have attacked me since my first day in politics because I was an outsider who took the voters’ concerns straight to the Capitol,” he wrote in a September 2024 statement.
Texas GOP Senate Runoff Polls: Cornyn vs. Paxton
Polls for the runoff suggest a tight race in the runoff, which has divided Republican voters as Democrats coalesce around Talarico.
A co/efficient poll showed Cornyn up a point (44 percent to 43 percent), with 13 percent remaining undecided. It surveyed 1,143 likely voters from April 11-14, 2026, according to the The New York Times.
An earlier Texas Public Opinion Research survey showed Paxton up 8 points (48 percent to 40 percent). It surveyed 1,225 likely voters from April 6-7, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Has Trump Endorsed Cornyn or Paxton in Texas Senate Race?
Trump’s endorsement remains powerful in Republican primaries, but he has not made his pick between Cornyn and Paxton.
“Both John and Ken ran great races, but not good enough. Now, this one, must be PERFECT! My Endorsements within the Republican Party have been virtually insurmountable!
!It is such an honor to realize and say that almost everyone I Endorse WINS, and wins by a lot, especially in Texas!
“I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair? We must win in November!!!” he wrote in a March 4 post to X.
Who Is James Talarico?
Talarico is a member of the Texas House of Representatives, where he has served since 2018. Prior to entering politics, Talarico worked as a middle school teacher and nonprofit director.
He was among the Texas Democrats who fled the state in 2025 to deny quorum in a bid to stop Republicans’ redistricting efforts aimed at creating more GOP-leaning congressional districts.
He defeated Representative Jasmine Crockett in the March primary.
Talarico told Newsweek in an interview in September 2025 that he doesn’t “see politics as left versus right,” but instead “as top versus bottom.”
“I see the billionaires who are trying to divide us with their social media algorithms, with their cable news networks, with the politicians who are fighting on our screens. So I’m trying to bridge those divides,” he said.
Democrats Hope Texas Could Be Emerging Battleground
Democrats have long hoped that Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston.
At the presidential level, that did play out throughout the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to under 6 points in 2020.
But in 2024, Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points—the strongest showing in more than a decade.
Democrats believe Texas has the potential to become competitive in 2026 as Trump’s national approval rating slips, and as Democratic candidates overperform expectations in special elections across the country.
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