Democrats Mary Peltola and Chris Pappas held leads in new polls of the Alaska and New Hampshire U.S. Senate races, contests that could play a key role in determining control of the upper chamber of Congress.
A campaign spokesperson for The Peltola campaign responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek, saying, “Alaskans know that Mary is a fighter who will stand up to anyone to take on the rigged system in DC and put Alaska first. From Nome to Juneau, and every community in between, Mary is building a broad coalition of excited Alaskans who are ready to fire self-serving Dan Sullivan this November.”
Newsweek reached out to the Pappas campaign via email for comment.
The races are viewed as among the most competitive of this year’s midterm elections, with implications for President Donald Trump’s agenda in the second half of his term. With Democrats needing to net four seats to flip the chamber, early polling in otherwise difficult states like Alaska is drawing heightened attention.
Why It Matters
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms. Democrats believe Trump’s declining approval rating could give them an edge in key races this year. Trump is also polling poorly on policy issues like immigration, the economy and the cost of living. Trump’s approval rating, according to The New York Times’ aggregate, was -19 points on Thursday, down from +9 points on Inauguration Day in 2025.
Democrats have been hopeful about their chances of winning control of the House in the November midterms, but the Senate is a steeper climb, with this year’s map offering few obvious flip opportunities. The GOP holds a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the chamber—or three seats for a tie, though the vice president serves as the tiebreaker.
Republican-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by about 3 points in 2024, are Democrats’ top targets. But no other GOP-held seats in single-digit Trump- or Harris-won states are up for grabs this year, so Democrats must compete in more conservative territory like Alaska if they want to win a majority.
Alaska Senate Race
Peltola, who held the state’s at-large congressional seat from 2022 to 2025, held a narrow lead over Senator Dan Sullivan in a new Alaska Survey Research poll released Thursday.
Peltola previously told Newsweek: “Alaskans know DC isn’t working for them, and they’re ready for change. I’m so grateful for the support we’ve received from every single borough and census area across Alaska, and it’s that support that will bring us to victory this November.”
Alaska uses ranked choice voting, in which voters rank their preferred candidates. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated. This continues until a candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.
The poll tested how that could play out in November. In the poll’s first round, Peltola led with 49.1 percent. Sullivan followed with 42.5 percent, while Republican James Ryan received 5.2 percent. Independent Sid Hill received 3.2 percent support and would be eliminated in this scenario, according to the poll.
Peltola held a majority support in the second round of the poll with 50.2 percent to Sullivan’s 43.6 percent. Ryan received 6.2 percent support in the second round of the poll. The poll surveyed 1,946 likely voters from April 16-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Alaska, typically viewed as a Republican-leaning state, is among the Democrats’ top targets. It backed Trump by 14 points in 2024, but Peltola’s candidacy has boosted Democrats’ hopes they can unseat Sullivan in November. The Cook Political Report gives Sullivan an advantage, rating the race as Leans Republican.
Nate Adams, a spokesperson for Sullivan, expressed confidence in Sullivan’s chances in a previous statement to Newsweek.
“Senator Sullivan was outraised and outspent by far-left Democrats in both of his previous races and won them anyway. This race will be no different,” he said.
What Other Polls Show About Alaska Race
An earlier Alaska Survey Research poll gave Peltola an advantage. Forty-eight percent of respondents backed her, compared to 46.4 percent for Sullivan, while 5.6 percent were undecided. It surveyed 1,681 likely voters January 8-11.
An earlier Data for Progress survey gave Peltola a 1-point lead (46 percent to 45 percent) among the 823 likely voters surveyed October 17-23, 2025.
New Hampshire Senate Race
In New Hampshire, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen opted to retire at the end of her term, leaving open a seat in a state that backed Harris by about 3 points in 2024. Pappas is viewed as the front-runner on the Democratic side, while former Senator John Sununu, who held the seat from 2003 through 2009, and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown are running in the Republican primary.
A new poll from the University of New Hampshire gave Pappas, a former House member, a lead over both potential Republican rivals in the race to succeed Shaheen.
Pappas led Sununu by 7 points, with 49 percent support to Sununu’s 42 percent. In a matchup against Brown, Pappas extended his lead to 14 points, winning 52 percent support to Brown’s 38 percent.
It surveyed 1,295 voters from April 17-21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Democrats are viewed as a slight favorite in New Hampshire, but the race is still viewed as competitive. It is classified as Lean Democrat by the Cook Political Report.
What Other Polls Show About New Hampshire Senate Race
An earlier Saint Anselm College poll gave Pappas an advantage.
Sununu winning the GOP nomination would make the race closer, according to the poll. Pappas led by 3 points in that scenario (46 percent to 43 percent). He held a more comfortable lead against Brown (47 percent to 38 percent). The poll surveyed 1,491 registered voters in New Hampshire on March 16-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, wrote in a polling release at the time that Republicans are facing “headwinds” in the Senate race.
“War and economic uncertainty are creating headwinds for Republicans in New Hampshire, putting Congressman Chris Pappas in a stronger position than in our previous survey,” he said.
A poll from the NH Journal and Praecones Analytica showed Pappas up 18 points over Brown (46 percent to 28 percent) and about 6 points over Sununu (42 percent to 36 percent). It surveyed 603 voters from December 26-28, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percentage points.
Democrats’ Senate Challenge
Democrats hope to flip the seat held by Senator Susan Collins in blue-leaning Maine, but she has won in tough environments before and is still viewed as a formidable opponent in the Pine Tree State.
North Carolina’s seat held by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis is another primary target for Democrats. Former Governor Roy Cooper has led polling over former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley.
Republicans, meanwhile, hope to flip Democratic-held seats in Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection, and Michigan, where Senator Gary Peters is retiring, in addition to New Hampshire.
But even if Democrats win all of those seats, they would still fall short of a majority, holding just 49 seats. That means Democrats must win double-digit Trump states for a Senate majority. Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are being targeted in November.
Related Articles
