Representative Nancy Mace trails other Republicans in a new poll of South Carolina’s GOP gubernatorial primary as prediction markets shift to favor others in the race.
Mace, who represents South Carolina’s First District, has struggled to break through in the state’s gubernatorial race as she faces other prominent conservatives, including Attorney General Alan Wilson, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette and Representative Ralph Norman.
Newsweek reached out to Mace’s campaign for comment via email.
Mace Delivered Warning Sign in Poll
The poll, conducted by South Carolina consulting firm Starboard Communications, showed Mace polling behind Wilson and Norman. The congresswoman received 13 percent support, compared to Wilson’s 20 percent and Norman’s 14 percent.
It surveyed 604 likely GOP primary voters from April 8-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The poll was earlier reported by FITS News, a South Carolina-based political news outlet. The pollster is not affiliated with any of the campaigns.
It comes as two major prediction markets showed Mace falling behind other candidates.
Kalshi’s gave her a 23 percent chance of winning the GOP primary, compared to Evette’s 35 percent and Wilson’s 37 percent, as of Friday afternoon. Polymarket showed her with a 26 percent to Evette’s 32 percent and Wilson’s 36 percent.
Prediction markets reflect trader sentiment on current events, but do not always accurately predict future events.
What Do Other Polls Show?
Polls have shown a divided Republican field, with no candidate breaking through. A co/efficient poll of 805 likely voters from March 26-27 showed Evette leading with 19 percent support, followed by Mace at 18 percent. Wilson received 15 percent support in that poll, and 13 percent backed Norman.
A Quantus Insights poll showed Mace and Wilson tied at 22 percent, while Evette trailed with 16 percent and Norman received 11 percent. It surveyed 806 likely voters from March 10-11.
Both polls showed a significant number of undecided voters who could end up deciding the winner of the race.
Scott Huffmon, political science professor at Winthrop University, told Newsweek on Friday that national name recognition does not always translate to electoral success in South Carolina.
“National name recognition can mean a lot less than opinions of county party members,” he said. “They are often ‘opinion leaders’ among their Republican friends and those friends often take cues from them. Courting both the likely voter, broadly defined, and the county parties is a lot of work and sometimes a delicate balancing act.”
Huffmon noted that undecided voters will still be crucial to the outcome. Undecided voters could be alienated from Mace “if she projects volatility like she did early in this race,” he said.
South Carolina law requires that if no candidate receives 50 percent support in the June 9 primary, a runoff would be held on June 23.
Trump Endorsement Could Be Decisive
President Donald Trump has not weighed in on the race, and his support could bolster any Republican candidate who may be lagging in the polls.
“Mace has been in and out of Trump’s good graces over the years. If she could pry an endorsement out of him, that could be a game changer,” Huffmon said. “But keep in mind, Trump likes [Governor Henry] McMaster, who was the first state official to endorse him and Trump cleared the way for McMaster to become governor.”
McMaster has endorsed Evette, who has cast herself as pro-Trump on the campaign trail.
Mace distanced herself from Trump following the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Her critique of the president drew his ire, as he endorsed against her in the 2022 primary for her reelection.
However, he supported Mace’s reelection in 2024, describing her as a “strong conservative voice” in his endorsement on Truth Social. Mace has become more supportive of the president upon his return to office and endorsed him in the 2024 presidential race. She has been critical of the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files, saying that Attorney General Pam Bondi’s approach “undermined” Trump.
Huffmon said Mace “hammering on the culture war issues” will align with many of the voters she needs to win over in the primary, but there are other “conservative bona fides the likely GOP primary voters will be looking for.”
Is South Carolina’s Governor Race Competitive for Democrats?
Elections forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as safe for Republicans. General elections are often not competitive in South Carolina, a solidly conservative state that Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024.
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