Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers got some good polling news on Tuesday, as new data shows him leading all three of his potential Democratic rivals in his bid to flip the swing state’s Senate seat, which has been held by a Democrat for nearly half a century.
Although Michigan has been a swing state in gubernatorial and presidential elections, Democratic Senator Gary Peters has held his seat since 2015. Prior to Peters, former Democratic Senator Carl Levin held the seat for 36 years, going back to 1979. The Midwestern state’s other Senator is Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who in 2024 won the seat vacated by former Senator Debbie Stabenow, who had served since 2001.
Given that President Donald Trump won in Michigan in 2024, as well as previously in 2016, the GOP sees the Great Lakes state as one of its best Senate pickup opportunities in the November midterm. The latest poll from Glengariff Group for the Detroit Regional Chamber shows Rogers with a narrow lead over Democratic Senate hopefuls Abdul El-Sayed, Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow.
Newsweek reached out to each campaign for comment via email.
Michigan Senate Race: What New Poll Shows
In a matchup with El-Sayed, Rogers comes in at 44.7 percent compared to the Democrat’s 39.8 percent. Against Stevens, his lead is narrower, 43.8 percent to 41.5 percent, and against McMorrow, 42.8 percent to 40.7 percent. The survey was conducted among likely voters from April 28 to May 5, and included 600 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The polling memo found that Rogers “has a bigger problem facing him in the form of undecided voters,” most of whom disapprove of Trump.
“Anywhere from 67%-74% of undecided voters in the U.S. Senate race disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as President. Remaining undecided voters in the U.S. Senate rate sharply disapprove of President Trump’s performance,” the memo reads.
Alyssa Brouillet, a spokeswoman for Rogers, said Rogers is continuing “to command the field with his campaign to Get Michigan Working Again.”
“After 32 years of Democrat failures in our state, Michiganders are making clear that if they want the outcomes to change, our representation has to. Mike Rogers will fix everything the Democrats broke – from restoring job opportunities, to getting kids reading again, and making life more affordable,” she said.
The McMorrow campaign touted the poll as showing her gain ground on Rogers compared to the last Glengariff Group poll, in which Rogers led Stevens by less than a half a percentage point (44.1 percent to 43.7 percent), McMorrow by about 3 points (45.7 percent to 42.4 percent) and El-Sayed by just over 6 points (48 percent to 41.6 percent). Glengariff Group is well known for its polling in Michigan politics.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from January 2-6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“This race is about nominating the best candidate to win both the primary and the general. What’s clear is Abdul El-Sayed is consistently the weakest candidate against Mike Rogers, Stevens has lost ground, and the more voters get to know Mallory, the better she does – closing the gap against Mike Rogers to a statistical tie.” McMorrow campaign spokesperson Jackson Boaz said.
Sophie Pollock, an El-Sayed spokesperson, pointed to his strong support among young voters in a statement to Newsweek.
“The candidate who can win a general election in Michigan is the candidate who can turn out young people and folks who have been left behind. Abdul is winning with 80 percent of voters under 44,” the statement reads.
Arik Wolk, a spokesperson for Stevens’ campaign, told Newsweek that polls consistently show “that Haley Stevens is the strongest Democrat to go up against Mike Rogers.”
“Haley leads Rogers with definite voters, she has the highest vote share of any Democrat, and performs best of any Democrat with Black voters––a consistency across all polling that demonstrates Haley is building the coalition to win,” Wolk said.
Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, a Wayne State University political scientist, told Newsweek the general election will be “very competitive.” Rogers is benefiting from higher name recognition due to his 2024 Senate bid, she said. Democrats, however, may be able to “ride a blue wave” due to Trump’s declining national approval rating.
“I think they need to focus on inflation and affordability. They cannot avoid campaigning on wedge issues, like the war with Iran and the Israeli expansion into the West Bank, Gaza, and Lebanon. Depending on who wins the primary election, that could pose a problem for the Democrats if it fractures their base,” she said.
The conflict in Gaza has become a major sticking point among Michigan Democrats. The state is home to both a sizable Arab and Muslim population in areas like Dearborn, as well as a notable Jewish population. That divide is on display in the primary—Stevens is viewed as a more pro-Israel candidate, while El-Sayed has been more critical.
“The area is highly sensitive to politics and wars in the Middle East. Many have family members experiencing bombings. Many have had family members killed. Concern about this extends to friends of the family with ties to the Middle East,” she said.
What Do Other Polls and Prediction Markets Show?
Polls point to a competitive race in Michigan, a critical battleground roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans.
A recent Emerson College survey showed Stevens with the strongest lead against Rogers. She received 47 percent support, compared with Rogers’ 42 percent, in a general election matchup. McMorrow received 46 percent, compared to 43 percent for Rogers. El-Sayed and Rogers were tied, each receiving 43 percent of the vote.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from January 24-25, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Prediction markets, on the other hand, favor Democrats, who have a 72 percent chance on Kalshi and a 73 percent chance on Polymarket of holding onto the Michigan Senate seat.
These markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Who Is Leading the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary?
El-Sayed, McMorrow and Stevens are all set to face off in the Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, in a race that has ideological divides.
El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, is the most staunchly progressive candidate in the race and has earned the backing of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Stevens, who flipped a Republican-leaning U.S. House district in the Detroit suburbs in 2018, is viewed as the most centrist. McMorrow, a state senator, is viewed as more progressive than Stevens but more moderate than El-Sayed.
The latest poll from Mitchell Research, which surveyed 405 likely voters from May 1-7, 2026, showed El-Sayed with a lead of 27 percent, compared to McMorrow’s 17 percent and Stevens’ 18 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
A Glengariff Group poll with the Detroit Regional Chamber gave Stevens a lead in the Democratic primary. That poll showed Stevens with 25 percent, El-Sayed with 23 percent and McMorrow with 16 percent support. Thirty-six percent said they were still undecided about who they would support in the primary. Winning over those undecided voters will be crucial for whichever candidate wins the primary.
It surveyed 500 likely voters from April 17-19, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Sarbaugh-Thompson said McMorrow may be the “safer choice” for Democrats to avoid fracturing the party’s base in November.
How Michigan Became Key Swing State
Michigan emerged as an electoral battleground over the past decade. While former President Barack Obama carried the state easily in both of his runs—by more than 16 points in 2008 and by just under 10 points in 2012—Trump flipped it in 2016, carrying it by less than half a percentage point.
The state flipped back to Democrats in 2020, when former President Joe Biden carried it by just under 2 points. But Trump won it again in 2024 by about 1.4 points—the strongest showing for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
At the same time, Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin managed to win an open seat by less than half a percentage point in 2024.
The conflict in Gaza is a big part of why Trump did well in Michigan, according to Sarbaugh-Thompson, noting that Biden’s “’hug Bibi’” strategy was “repugnant” to many voters.
“They believed Trump when he said he would end the violence. Harris did not distance herself from Biden on this issue. So many people in the Dearborn area who voted for Biden in 2020 voted for Trump in 2024,” she said.
The state has become more competitive for Republicans due to a Democratic collapse in more rural areas that once leaned Democratic. Trump’s inroads with white working-class voters helped carry him to victory in the state. Harris’ collapse with Muslim and Arab American voters in 2024 also contributed to Trump’s victory in Michigan. Those voter groups will be crucial to the Senate race this year. At the same time, Democrats have made gains in suburbs of cities like Detroit and Grand Rapids, helping to offset those losses.
Michigan Is a Must‑Win State for Democrats in 2026
Polls showing Rogers with a lead are major warning signs for Democrats, who must hold onto the seat to reclaim control of the Senate in November. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control. The vice president serves as the tiebreaking vote.
In addition to Michigan, Democrats are defending a seat in another Trump-won state. Senator John Ossoff is running for reelection in Georgia, a race deemed Lean Democrat by the Cook Political Report.
Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by about 3 points, as top pickup opportunities.
But there are no other Harris-won or single-digit Trump states up for grabs, meaning Democrats must compete in double-digit Trump states to win a majority. They’re investing in states such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas to make those races competitive—and polls show those races are close.
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