Voters in three states headed to the polls for the first primary day of the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, with the big story being a pair of Texas Senate primaries that both seemed to break quite well for Democrats’ majority hopes.
State Rep. James Talarico’s win over US Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary gave Democrats what appears to be their most electable nominee, while baggage-laden Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton forced a runoff with GOP Sen. John Cornyn.
Primaries were held Tuesday not just in Texas but also in North Carolina and Arkansas.
Below are some takeaways from those races and other primaries on Tuesday.
Crockett misses her opportunity
The story of the Texas Democratic Senate primary wound up being largely about a missed opportunity for Crockett.
The congresswoman came into the race with buzz around her name and some real built-in advantages. But her campaign never seemed to do the kinds of traditional things – the blocking and tackling – that you need to do to complement that.
She got in the primary at the 11th hour just three months ago. Her campaign advertising was scant. (In fact, Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott accounted for a large share of the money spent on her behalf as he sought to elevate her candidacy in hopes of hurting Democrats.)
Her message at times seemed to be more focused on process and grievances rather than talking about what she would do as a senator. In the closing days of the campaign, her staff made a reporter from The Atlantic leave an event.
None of it suggested she was ready for primetime, and that showed on primary day. Despite most of the polling having shown her leading, it was pretty clear early on that this was Talarico’s night.
One way to look at that is that Democratic primary voters made a more pragmatic choice rather than picking the firebrand. But also — the firebrand’s campaign just didn’t stack up.
A potentially brutal 12-week Texas Senate runoff looms
The GOP primary went about as expected, with Cornyn and Paxton headed for a runoff that will conclude on May 26.
Under normal circumstances, you’d say Cornyn is the clear underdog in the runoff. Usually these primaries break down between the incumbent vote and the anti-incumbent vote. And a majority of primary voters voted against the incumbent.
But Paxton’s baggage — including a past indictment and allegations of infidelity from his wife — suggests voting for him could be a hurdle for some Rep. Wesley Hunt supporters, who could either vote for Cornyn or sit out the runoff after Hunt finished third.
Cornyn is also currently running narrowly ahead of Paxton too, despite most polls having showed Paxton running in first place.
And beyond that, Talarico’s win in the Democratic primary could put a premium on Republicans putting forward the more electable candidate, which would seem to be Cornyn. Expect to see plenty of talk about whether President Donald Trump, who praised all three candidates in the primary, might join the national GOP in picking Cornyn over Paxton in the name of holding the seat.
That might be a tough pill for Trump to swallow, given Paxton is more MAGA than Cornyn. But Trump will also be concerned about keeping the GOP’s congressional majorities.
(CNN’s Dana Bash reported on the air Tuesday night that it was “very likely” Trump would come off the sidelines and endorse in the runoff.)
Talarico would be the underdog against either Republican, and Democrats haven’t won any statewide race in Texas since 1994. But putting this one in play would be huge for their majority math.
What’s clear for now is that a massively expensive and increasingly ugly GOP campaign just got extended for 12 weeks. And that’s suboptimal for Republicans.
We got the expected matchup for North Carolina Senate
One of the other big Senate races on the map is in North Carolina, where retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’s seat is open and both sides held primaries.
The results were as expected: Democratic former governor Roy Cooper will face former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. But amid questions about Whatley’s ability to lock down MAGA votes, he did lose more then one-third of the vote to relatively minor candidates.
It’s important not to oversell that. But Whatley has basically been the de facto nominee for a long time. And he got an early endorsement from Trump.
Democrats probably need Cooper to win to have a shot at taking the majority.
Ted Cruz helps take down an incumbent Republican
Speaking of incumbents not getting love from key figures in their national party, Rep. Dan Crenshaw got the cold shoulder from Trump, Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz. Now he’s a lame duck.
Crenshaw lost to state Rep. Steve Toth. And it doesn’t appear to have been particularly close.
Cruz played an especially large role in taking down Crenshaw, including even cutting an ad supporting Toth – a highly unusual move for an incumbent senator.
As for why it happened? Crenshaw undoubtedly rubbed some of the MAGA movement the wrong way by occasionally showing some independence from Trump over the years. But it’s also true that Texas’s new map worked against him by moving in lots of Toth-friendly territory.
Other incumbents get scares
Crenshaw had the worst day for an incumbent, and Cornyn is clearly in some trouble.
But they’re not the only incumbents getting scares on Tuesday.
As of late Tuesday night, longtime Democratic Rep. Al Green was locked in a tight contest with Rep. Christian Menefee, who recently won a special election for his Houston-area seat. (The two are running against each other under the new map.)
And in North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee was in a tight contest with Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, a well-funded challenger running to Foushee’s left in a very blue district.
The Tony Gonzales saga goes on
But for one incumbent, facing a runoff was actually a good outcome.
GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas faced a rematch with Brandon Herrera, whom he narrowly defeated in his 2024 primary. Gonzales has faced a series of brutal recent disclosures about an alleged affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. The news has led even some Republicans to call for him to resign.
He could still lose a runoff. But for now, he’s got reason not to resign and to keep fighting.
That could be good for Republicans in that it means they might not see their already slim majority shrink. But it could be bad in that they have to keep dealing with a really ugly situation.
A not-so-good day for ambitious House members
In part thanks to disillusionment with the state of legislating in the House, there are an extraordinary number of House members running for statewide office – more than two dozen of them, in fact.
They are not off to a good start.
While both Crockett and Hunt lost their Senate primaries, Republican Rep. Chip Roy finished a pretty distant second in the Republican primary for Texas attorney general.
He was in line for a runoff with state Sen. Mayes Middleton, but Roy is looking like a distinct underdog.
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