Florida has trended decisively Republican in recent elections, but a new poll of the 2026 races for governor and U.S. Senate suggests Democrats are mounting a competitive challenge ahead of this year’s midterms.
A survey commissioned by Freedom Project USA and conducted online by Change Research, a Democratic-aligned polling firm, shows Democratic former Representative David Jolly narrowly leading Republican Representative Byron Donalds in a potential general election matchup for governor, offering an early signal that the race may be tighter than Florida’s recent Republican dominance might imply.
It also shows Democratic retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman narrowly leading Republican Senator Ashley Moody with likely voters in a key race as Democrats try to take control of the Senate, while Democrat José Javier Rodríguez leads in the state attorney general’s race against incumbent James Uthmeier.
A spokesperson for Donalds’ campaign directed Newsweek to a post on X from chief strategist Ryan Smith, who dismissed the survey as unreliable, pointing to its Democratic links and writing: “The fact is Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds will be Florida’s next governor.”
“Floridians are fed up with Ashley Moody’s failed leadership that is driving up the cost of gas, groceries, insurance, rent and other essentials,” Albert Fujii, a spokesman for the Vindman campaign, told Newsweek. “We are going to win in November because Alex’s Florida First Agenda to cut costs and fight corruption is resonating with not just Democrats, but Republicans and Independents as well. We are all gas, no brakes.”
Key Points From the Poll
- For governor, Jolly leads Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent among likely voters
- Vindman leads Moody 47 percent to 45 percent in the Senate race
- Rodríguez leads in the attorney general race 45 percent to 41 percent against incumbent Uthmeier
- Democratic voter motivation is 13 points higher than Republicans (88 percent to 75 percent)
- Independents broke heavily toward Democrats for governor, giving Jolly an 18-point edge
- Cost of living dominated voter concerns, with 70 percent saying they are falling behind
- Other recent polls still show Republicans ahead and favored overall
What To Know
A Change Research poll in May found a Democrat leading the gubernatorial race amid shifting independents and rising economic dissatisfaction.
It points to a possible opening for Democrats in a state that has trended Republican at both the state and national levels.
Both parties may need to refocus their strategies on independents, turnout and economic concerns as the midterm races take shape.
Why It Matters
Florida was one of the country’s defining swing states as recently as the early 2010s but has since moved firmly into the Republican column, delivering increasingly large GOP margins in recent elections.
Any sign of renewed competitiveness has national implications for the midterms, where control of key offices—and broader political momentum—is at stake.
What the New Poll Shows
The Change Research poll was conducted May 13-16, surveying 2,070 registered voters, including 1,593 who said they are likely to vote in the 2026 midterms, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Jolly led Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent among likely voters.
After respondents were given more detailed information about the candidates, including their policy positions and critiques raised by opponents, that lead widened to 48 percent to 41 percent.
Much of Jolly’s advantage was driven by nonparty-affiliated voters.
Among independents—who number in the millions in Florida—Jolly led by 18 points, 46 percent to 28 percent, giving Democrats a potential path in a state where partisan voting is otherwise entrenched.
The poll also showed a notable enthusiasm gap. Democratic voters reported motivation levels at 88 percent, compared with 75 percent among Republicans, a difference that could become decisive if it translates into turnout.
Economic conditions dominate the political environment. Seventy percent of respondents said they are falling behind the cost of living, and 65 percent say Florida is not affordable for their family.
Everyday expenses—from gas and groceries to insurance—are cited as major sources of financial pressure.
Senate Race Also Turns Competitive
The same Change Research poll suggested a tightening—and in this case a reversal—of expectations in the Senate race.
According to the survey, Vindman led Moody 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, a notable shift in a race where other recent polls have shown the Republican with a clearer advantage.
The poll also found Rodríguez ahead of Uthmeier 45 percent to 41 percent in the race for attorney general, reinforcing the idea that the political environment may be improving for Democrats further down the ballot.
The findings stand in contrast to other recent surveys, which have generally shown Republicans leading statewide contests in Florida, highlighting the degree to which the electoral landscape remains unsettled less than six months before Election Day.
How the New Poll Compares With Others
Other recent surveys have presented a more familiar picture, with Republicans maintaining an edge.
A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll conducted by Cherry Communications from May 1-9 among 604 voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, found Donalds leading Jolly 47 percent to 39 percent.
Stetson University polling of 848 likely voters, conducted March 15-April 13, with a plus or minus 4.1 percentage point margin of error, showed Donalds ahead 47 percent to 40 percent, while an Emerson College poll of 1,125 likely voters, conducted March 29-31, with a plus or minus 2.8 percentage point margin of error, put the Republican up 44 percent to 39 percent.
Prediction markets reflect that broader trend, with Republicans still favored to hold the governorship despite signs of a tighter race.
On U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi, Republicans are priced at roughly a 78 percent chance of winning, compared with about 21 percent for Democrats. On Polymarket, the GOP is given a similar edge, at around 80 percent to 21 percent.
Prediction markets offer a snapshot of collective expectations, but can be thinly traded and are sensitive to narrative shifts rather than hard voter data.
Sponsored by KalshiFlorida’s Republican Shift
Recent election data helps explain why Republicans remain favored. County-level results from 2024 show Republicans gaining ground across much of Florida.
Areas around Miami and Orlando—once central to Democratic statewide wins—shifted toward the GOP, particularly in counties with large Hispanic and Latino populations. Those gains have eroded a key Democratic advantage and reshaped the electoral map.
The shift is visible across much of the state, with only a handful of urban counties consistently delivering strong Democratic margins while large swaths of Florida trend Republican.
Registration Advantage Underscores GOP Edge
Republicans have also built a durable structural advantage in voter registration over the past decade.
Once behind Democrats, the GOP has overtaken them and expanded its lead heading into the 2026 midterms, while the number of unaffiliated voters has steadily grown.
That trend reflects Florida’s broader political realignment and makes statewide Democratic victories more difficult, even in favorable environments.
For Democrats, that means any path to victory relies on maximizing turnout and winning over a disproportionate share of independents.
Independents and the Cost of Living
The Change Research poll highlighted the two forces that could reshape the race: independents and economic pressure.
Nonparty-affiliated voters emerge as the decisive bloc, breaking sharply toward Democrats in contrast with recent cycles when Republicans made gains among swing voters.
At the same time, economic anxiety cut across party lines. A majority of voters (57 percent) said lowering the cost of living should be the state’s top priority, with corruption (50 percent) and tax relief (41 percent) also ranking highly.
Those issues align with broader Democratic messaging that has increasingly focused on affordability and governance.
Trump, DeSantis and the National Picture
The national political climate is also shaping the contours of the race.
President Donald Trump’s standing in the poll is net negative, particularly among independents, a dynamic that could weigh on candidates closely aligned with him.
At the same time, Governor Ron DeSantis remains comparatively popular in Florida. Around 38 percent of voters said they want a governor who continues his policies, compared with 24 percent who want a Democrat to bring balance and 27 percent who prefer a more independent approach.
That split underscores a central tension: Voters may be open to change on economic grounds, but a significant share still supports the direction of Republican governance.
What Happens Next
The race moves toward the August 18, 2026, primary, with the general election scheduled for November 3, when voters will choose who succeeds term‑limited DeSantis.
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