1513 ET – Oil futures rise with front-month Brent testing a four-year intraday high on prospects of a prolonged standstill in U.S.-Iran negotiations. “All parts of the energy complex appear poised for higher prices with an eventual price top still difficult to define,” Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. U.S. inventory data added upside pressure with large draws in crude and products stocks and a record 6.4 million b/d in crude exports. “While this strong pace may be difficult to maintain amid loading and logistical issues, we feel that exports have shifted into a new and higher trading range,” Ritterbusch adds. WTI settles up 7% at$106.88 a barrel and Brent rises 6.1% to $118.03.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Crude Futures Gain on U.S.-Iran Standstill, U.S. Stock Draws
1332 ET – Oil futures extend gains as the standstill in the U.S.-Iran conflict leaves the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed and increases supply concerns. “The market has realized there isn’t necessarily going to be a very near-term increase in flows,” says Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth US. The large withdrawal last week in U.S. crude stocks, and the record 6.4 million b/d in crude exports, added to concerns. The data show that inventory draws “are not in the future, they’re now,” Babin says. Brent is up 7.4% at $119.52 a barrel, above the $119.50 high reached March 9 at the beginning of the war. WTI is up 7.6% at $107.53.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Oil Futures Extend Gains As U.S. Inventories Drop
1201 ET – Oil futures extend gains as the EIA reports bigger-than-expected declines in U.S. crude oil and product inventories. Crude stocks fell by 6.2 million barrels last week, with exports posting a weekly record of 6.4 million barrels a day. The U.S. is becoming “the supplier of last resort for an oil-starved world,” TradeStation’s head of global market strategy David Russell says in a note. “The Hormuz crisis continues to squeeze fuel supplies as peak driving season approaches.” U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels and distillate stocks were down by 4.5 million barrels. WTI is up 5.3% at $105.25 a barrel and Brent is up 5.6% at $117.56. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Oil Up 5% as U.S.-Iran Deadlock Signals Longer Energy Shock
1427 GMT – Oil prices climb 5% as stalled negotiations between the U.S. and Iran raise fears of a deeper, longer-lasting energy shock, with no progress reported between Tehran and Washington. “The market is no longer pricing the disruption as a short-lived front-month squeeze,” Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank says. Instead of just near-term prices rising, longer-dated contracts have moved sharply higher—2027 is up 25% to $78 and 2028 up 16% to $74. “This points to growing expectations of a prolonged supply shock driven by damaged Middle East infrastructure, lower production capacity, and the eventual need to rebuild depleted commercial and strategic reserves,” Hansen says. Brent rises 5.1% to $116.91 a barrel, while WTI is up 5% to $104.94 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
Oil Futures Press Higher on Continuing Supply Disruptions
0903 ET – Crude futures continue to climb on prospects of a prolonged standoff in the Middle East with the U.S. and Iran maintaining their respective blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. “The ongoing stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations makes any near-term normalization of flows through Hormuz increasingly unlikely,” XS.com analyst Linh Tran says in a note. “The market is no longer simply pricing in risk, but rather a prolonged period of supply disruption.” WTI is up 3.3% at $103.25 a barrel and Brent is 3.5% higher at $115.17 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Oil Gains Further as Prolonged U.S.-Iran Impasse Deepens Supply Shock
1134 GMT – Oil prices extend gains, with Brent crude for June delivery nearing $115 a barrel on prospects of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. In afternoon European trading, the international oil benchmark is up 3.1% at $114.74 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI rises 3.5% to $103.42 a barrel. Talks between the U.S. and Iran are at an impasse, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that President Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. Meanwhile, the strait continues to operate at minimal capacity. “Supply losses are being offset through constrained adjustments rather than new supply,” Kpler analysts say. “Over two-thirds of the rebalancing has come from supply curtailments and refinery run cuts.” (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
Oil Rises on Fears of Prolonged Hormuz Blockade
0726 GMT – Oil prices remain elevated after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. In early European trading, Brent crude for June delivery rises 1% to $112.34 a barrel, while WTI futures for June are up 0.7% to $100.64 a barrel. “Stalled peace talks have raised the prospect of an indefinite disruption to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf,” analysts at ANZ say. “The rebalancing of the market once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened will take years.” Traders are now watching for updates on peace negotiations and this week’s U.S. crude inventory report for signals on how quickly stockpiles are declining amid strong export demand. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
Oil-Producing Nations to Navigate Tectonic Market Shift
0833 GMT – The challenge facing petroleum-producing nations isn’t the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC but the broader tectonic shifts in the oil market, says Julius Baer’s Norbert Rücker. U.S. shale oil, South American deepwater oil, and Chinese plug-in hybrid cars all illustrate the new setting for oil markets, one characterized by stagnation and greater competition, he adds. The U.A.E.’s OPEC exit aligns with the analyst’s longer-term view of the oil market, in which ample supply and increased competition will anchor prices in the high $60s a barrel. The geopolitical consequences of the exit aren’t yet clear. But it comes at a time of greater realignment of relationships in the region and “could advance solution-finding within the continuing conflict,” he says. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
U.A.E. Moves Might Signal Shift Toward Deeper U.S. Alignment
0831 GMT – The U.A.E.’s stance on the Iran war and decision to leave OPEC might signal a deeper alignment with the U.S. and Israel, according to Capital Economics. “The country was an early signatory to the Abraham Accords and has pledged large AI-related investments in the U.S.,” economists at the firm say. “While speculative, the U.A.E.’s decision—and the prospect for higher oil production—could be seen as a positive decision in U.S.-Emirati ties insofar as it helps to reduce U.S. energy prices.” Earlier this month, the country opened talks with the U.S. about a potential currency swap line—which would give its central bank inexpensive access to dollars to support its currency or shore up foreign reserves in case of a liquidity crisis—due to concerns over the economic impact of the Iran war. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
